Shanghai Airport (600009): Analysis of the genetic “code” of the long distance running champion
Key 成都桑拿网 points of the report: The long-distance running athlete of the transportation industry, Shanghai Airport, is the most long-distance running champion in the transportation sector, and achieved a compound annual return rate of 21 from 2010 to 2018.
6%, leading the transportation sector; Among the A-shares with a market value of more than 20 billion in 2010, Shanghai Airport ranked fourth in the annual compound yield, trailing only Hikvision, Gree Electric, and Maotai in Guizhou.
“Seven points depend on performance, three points depend on estimation.” Performance is the core of its long-distance running champion temperament.
The combination of “can make money” and “sustainable money” means that Shanghai Airport, a “good business”, cannot be duplicated and has a monopoly resource advantage, relying on a strong moat to build a solid barrier to entry, and the industry characteristics are more like high-end liquor.
Furthermore, on the combined path of profitability and growth attributes, the rising path of Shanghai Airport’s higher-end liquor spirit leader is clearer, that is, its future profit promotes certainty.
How to achieve General Changsheng?
Why does Shanghai Airport maintain the characteristics of high profitability and high growth?
From the financial data, the non-aviation elasticity release driven by consumption return and the diminishing of fixed costs due to the flow scale effect are the two paths for profit improvement. From the main business perspective, non-aviation core business tax exemption is a highly profitable and high-growth industry.Is the main driving force to release the company’s performance.
With the scale of other international hub airports, Shanghai Airport is based in the Yangtze River Delta region, which has the largest population and the most developed economy in China. Under the “one city, two games” policy, the company has approximately exclusive high-end consumption power in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the proportion of international passengers far exceeds the capital.The airport and Baiyun Airport have only the irreproducible location moat advantages, which are the key genes for Shanghai Airport’s long-term success.
Hidden assets are the main business of “runners”. Shanghai Airport also has unique hidden assets, which contributes to additional performance improvements: 1) Only Shanghai Airports listed in the domestic airport have a 40% stake in their own oil company, Pudong Aviation Oil, Pudong Aviation Oil has strong profitability, and the return on investment reached 2 in 2004-2018.
9 times, still achieve the role of performance “stabilizer” under high oil prices; 2) Shanghai Airport adopts a unique asset-light operating model, and the leased cost is gradually depreciated and the sum of financial costs is summed up.Sexual “bonus”.
Therefore, in addition to sharing the company’s high-profit and high-growth main business income, holding Shanghai Airport also means investing in its unique investment income and operating model.
Can the future glory continue?
There are three main development paths for 杭州夜网论坛 internationally listed international airports: high growth in their own traffic, rapid growth in non-aerospace revenue per passenger, and expansion of outbound traffic.
Considering the medium-term planned capacity of Shanghai Airport, it is expected that the gradual increase in traffic will become the new normal; through the expansion of commercial area, new tax-free contracts will be implemented, and the rapid growth of non-airline revenue for single- and medium-term forward passengers will become the key to market value improvement. It is expected that by 2025年 年上海机场的市值有望突破2800亿，较2018年底仍约3倍空间，长期持有价值显着。
Risk Warning: 1.
Risks of tax exemption policy; Macroeconomic downside risks; intensified competition in duty-free shops in the city